The live stages of X Factor get under way this weekend but already this series has become one of the most unpredictable, controversial and chaotic of all time.
First we had the debacle of the judges' houses when Cheryl Cole inexplicably opted against selecting peoples' choice Gamu Nhengu, instead favouring a mini rapping version of herself as well as drama queen Katie Waissel despite watching both of them make a mess of their audition.
Cheryl, who is aiming for a unique hat-trick having been the winning mentor in 2008 and 2009, has subsequently taken a lot of criticism in the media and outraged fans across the internet, while Cher Lloyd and Katie have hardly come out of this smelling of roses either.
But then Gamu appeared to be handed a lifeline when the 'wildcard twist' was reported, prompting bookies to re-open betting on previously eliminated acts from the houses stage and thrust the Zimbabwe-born 18-year-old right back to the top of the market alongside Matt Cardle.
Surely Cheryl wouldn't make the same mistake again?
Well, she probably won't even get the chance after the UK Border Agency confirmed that Gamu and her family, who arrived in Scotland five years ago, have been ordered to leave Britain voluntarily or face deportation following the rejection of their application to stay.
Some bookies even took bets on whether Simon Cowell would meet with Prime Minister David Cameron, a self-confessed X Factor fan, and somehow get this ruling overturned - but can the music mogul really be that powerful? Anything seems possible at the moment.
Gamu is still as short as 5/1 and if she does end up back on the show then not only will she be one of the best singers with a huge support base but she'll also have a unique storyline compared to the other finalists.
However, given the circumstances it seems that Treyc Cohen - also a much more polished performer than Katie and Cher at the last audition - is likely to get the nod for Cheryl's wildcard, she shouldn't be viewed a no hoper.
But the 26-year-old, rejected at Simon's LA mansion last year, won't make it into our staking plan purely because this whole situation remains a bit of a lottery. As far as all the potential wild cards are concerned, it's perhaps best to adopt the wait and see policy before staking any money on them.
Let's now look at each category in turn, focusing on those definitely in the line-up.
The Girls - Cheryl Cole - 6/4 general
Rebecca Ferguson (7/2)Cher Lloyd (7/1)Katie Waissel (28/1)
Cheryl, who has reportedly been forced to call in a security firm this week after being hounded by death threats, did at least make one superb choice at the luxury country house in Ascot when selecting Rebecca Ferguson.
We believe the Liverpudlian single mother of two comfortably has the best voice out of all 12 currently selected acts - and the potential wild cards for that matter - while she also has one of the most likeable personalities.
Rebecca rose to prominence with a quite brilliant performance at boot camp as she stunned Simon, Louis Walsh and stand-in judge Nicole Scherzinger with an emotional version of Corinne Bailey Rae's Like A Star.
Whether the 24-year-old becomes a star in her own right remains to be seen but it's no surprise to see her second-favourite with most bookies (7/2) to be X Factor champion.
She first got the chance to sing in front of Cheryl at the Ascot manor but despite coming across shy and timid, she managed to hold it together and showcase her soulful vocals throughout a rendition of Owl City's hit Fireflies.
Rebecca's lack of self confidence isn't necessarily a negative - in previous years viewers have tended to warm to the more vulnerable individual acts such as former winners Leon Jackson, Leona Lewis and Joe McElderry.
In fact you wouldn't say any previous winner - also including Steve Brookstein, Shayne Ward and Alexandra Burke - ever came across cocky or over the top throughout their respective series.
Yes, Sharon Osbourne did accuse Steve of being arrogant during the dramatic series one final but the viewers didn't agree and if anything probably felt a bit sorry for him.
The same can't be said about Cher and Katie at this moment in time, even though they both broke down and cried during the final audition.
Katie is perceived to be fame-obsessed and comments such as "I want to be a star in music, film, fashion, arts, medicine, everything" won't win her fans.
Auditioning elaborate fake eyelashes as well as holding a silly designer umbrella would have put most judges off and then her terrible attempt at the classic song Smile should have been the final nail in her coffin.
Yet somehow Cheryl was impressed and kept her in the competition.
The 24-year-old is running the risk of becoming the pantomime villain of this series - if she isn't already - and for that reason we staying well clear.
Moving onto Cher, we certainly can't say she doesn't have talent. But the way the fragile 17-year-old badly struggled to deal with the pressure at judges' houses has led to concerns that she isn't mentally ready for the live stages.
Some have suggested her idol Cheryl should have done the responsible thing and told her to come back next year but doing that would possibly give another judge the chance to mentor her.
There were newspaper reports claiming Cher was on the brink of quitting but she hit back, declaring in the Sun: "There's no need to be worried about me. I'm tip top. My voice is back. I'm not a little girl anymore and I know what I'm doing."
Let's not forget how she became bookies' favourite in the first place, wowing judges with her version of Turn My Swag On and showing off a distinctive edge that really stands her out from the rest.
Her curious rap before launching into Coldplay's Vida la Vida at boot camp divided opinion somewhat but her quirky style will be a major talking point throughout the series and once the whole Gamu saga is forgotten, she has the potential to steal the show.
It's a shame the press have already shown intent to go after her with a string of unfavourable headlines although quotes such as "I want to be the female equivalent of Dappy in N-Dubz" (Star magazine) only strengthens the 'chav' tag.
That said the odds of 7/1 are really inflated in our opinion and although she doesn't fit into the mould of the traditional X Factor winner - like Rebecca does - maybe it's time the public go for someone different.
The Boys - Dannii Minogue - 2/1 general
Matt Cardle (7/2)Aidan Grimshaw (9/1)Nicolo Festa (28/1)
Considering Dannii was absent from all the initial auditions and also boot camp, she may consider herself rather lucky to be handed a traditionally strong category. There have been three 'boy' winners in the history of X Factor and she guided one of those - Leon Jackson - to glory back in 2007.
All the controversy surrounding the girls' category this week has deflected attention away from Dannii's bizarre selection of cocky Italian diva Nicolo Festa ahead of her other options including Marlon McKenzie and Paije Richardson, who we believe are both vocally superior and much more likeable.
In fact poor old Marlon, 27, suffered by the decision at boot camp to raise the 'overs' category to 28 from 25. If it had remained the same as every other series he surely would have made it to the live stages - although that's another issue entirely.
Dannii admittedly described Nicolo as "the biggest risk ever" but from another perspective one could argue it's quite a clever tactic, even if she doesn't realise it. Picking three similar type of acts can mean they steal votes from each other and subsequently have their support diluted - so this strategy could give her a better chance of keeping all three for the opening few weeks.
Nicolo will need to rely on his attitude and showmanship rather than his singing to attract enough fans to go far, but winning is surely several steps too far.
Aidan Grimshaw comes across as a more serious and intense version of Joe McElderry but despite having strong vocals, we doubt the nation will warm to him as much as they did the South Shields star.
When you look at the history of X Factor, no category has ever won two years in succession so you have to ask whether the public will want an alternative to yet another male solo artist in their late teens.
His acapella interpretation of Gold Digger in the first audition stages made the judges sit up and take notice and having maintained a high standard throughout the remainder of the selection process, it seemed a no brainer for Dannii to pick him in her final three.
The 18-year-old from Blackpool will no doubt be considered a dark horse but we reckon he'll find it hard to seize a lion's share of the vote.
Matt Cardle is currently the favourite with most firms - and a best of 7/2 - but at the same time has a kind of underdog air about him.
The 27-year-old ex-painter and decorator has an incrediblesoaring vocal range, as demonstrated by his stunningly pure performance of The First Time Ever I Saw Your Face at boot camp and again in front of Dannii when he sang If I Were A Boy by Beyonce.
Matt is a regular, down-to-earth guy from Essex and with a voice like that you can understand why he got fed up with a succession of dead-end jobs and having 'no real direction'.
He might have been lazy and demotivated in the past but singing is clearly what he does best and this is the perfect opportunity to prove it.
We have no qualms about the short prices, but history suggests early favourites don't always have it their own way. Just look at Danyl Johnson last year for example.
Matt is already one of the most popular contestants on various fansites and polls across the internet but the X Factor is a musical marathon and we're yet to really cross the start line.
The Groups - Simon Cowell - 5/2
One Direction (7/2)Belle Amie (20/1)FYD (28/1)
The groups category is still searching for its first X Factor crown and there's a growing feeling that this could well be the year.
Simon Cowell will feel he's due a win having not tasted glory since Leona Lewis' triumph in 2006 and to give himself a better chance, he's put through the two acts purposefully manufactured at boot camp.
Some would argue One Direction and Belle Amie are merely made up of failed solo acts but this isn't strictly true.
For example, Liam Payne was easily in with a chance of reaching the final three in the boys category - let alone the judges house stage - so it's more than likely he was earmarked to spearhead a new group prior to his apparent rejection at boot camp.
They needed a talented frontman to make this plan, which has failed in previous years, more viable although it's fair to say Harry Styles, Niall Horan, Zain Malik and Louis Tomlinson weren't quite good enough to fly out to see Dannii.
Even so Simon will have big plans for this 'relevant' quintet and we'd expect them to go far.
Belle Amie are made up of Esther Campbell, Rebecca Creighton, Sophia Wardman and Geneva Lane and despite having little time to prepare ahead of the audition at Simon's villa in Marbella, they did gel together well enough to earn a spot in his final three.
Girl bands do have a terrible record in X Factor and there isn't much evidence so far to suggest Belle Amie won't struggle to make an early impact.
Finally we come to FYD, who looked the most slick and well-rehearsed group at the final audition.
However, due to most of the focus in this category being on One Direction, FYD are available at huge prices to win the show while they're one of the favourites to be kicked off first.
It is always difficult for any act to get through the early weeks without the same kind of exposure and attention that the frontrunners enjoy but we believe this five-piece - made up of Ryan Lee Seager, Alex Murdoch, Jordan Gabriel, Matthew Newtion and Kalvin Lamey - can make enough of an impression to establish themselves in the competition.
While we're not expecting FYD to dramatically shoot to the top of the betting after the opening weekend, it could be worth taking a small each-way chance on them to emulate JLS' run to the final in 2008.
Although Simon is thought to favour his own creations, he spotted the group's promise in Spain during their performance of the Madcon hit Beggin' and later described them as the "dark horse in the contest."FYD also impressed with their creative harmonies and arrangement during versions of Plan B's She Said and Eliza Doolittle's Pack Up in the earlier audition rounds and even former winner Brookstein said he preferred them to One Direction.
However we must also add that Steve, writing in a blog on London24, thinks the "smart money" would be on the manufactured boyband - and he's even having a tenner on it himself!
We're opposing the series one champion's opinion though because FYD's odds are just too big to ignore at this stage. Especially when there's so little to choose between the groups in terms of talent.
The over-28s - Louis Walsh - 12/1
John Adeleye (20/1)Storm Lee (28/1)Mary Byrne (28/1)
It's easy to be dismissive of the oldies, especially after the judges house round at Adare Castle in Ireland was portrayed as a bit of a freak show.
Poor old Louis Walsh always seems to get lumbered with what's perceived to be the worst category each year, solely for comedy value, but he's now talked himself into being optimistic about his three acts.
Eccentric Scottish-American rocker Storm Lee, now sporting bright red hair, is essentially a Jon Bon Jovi/Bryan Adams wannabe and will polarise opinion similar to Jedward last year.
His over-confidence and belief that he's destined for great things will annoy some and make others laugh, but a cult following should see him survive for a few weeks at least.
Cowell has never been a fan of the 37-year-old from the first audition so it was almost inevitable Louis would send him through to spark another rivalry.
Tesco have got a lot of free advertising from Mary Byrne although it's highly unlikely she'll go back to work on the checkouts again.
The 50-year-old was instantly compared with Susan Boyle following her rousing rendition of I (Who Have Nothing) at her first audition in Dublin but she nearly ruined her chances of reaching the live stages when forgetting some of the words to Coldplay's Fix You in front of Louis and his sidekick Sharon.
Nevertheless she had too good a voice to reject while Louis was also drawn to her friendly personality and gutsy determination. This doesn't make her a pop star though.
Finally we have John Adeleye, who has virtually drifted into the live stages without anyone really noticing him.
The 30-year-old care worker was head and shoulders above the other singers in his category in Ireland and must surely have been Louis' easiest pick.
Although some may dismiss him as just the best of a bad bunch, John's performance of Billionaire was pretty cool and we're backing him to be a real surprise package.
Admittedly we are concerned that John's calm and composed nature means he's flying under the radar at the moment and an early exit would appear to be a genuine risk.
But if he hangs on in there, he can be one of those acts that bloom as the weeks go on.
Winning X Factor is all about momentum towards the end of the series and not necessarily about popularity built up over the auditions.
According to the official X Factor statistics, last year's winner Joe only started topping the vote on a regular basis from show seven while runner-up Olly Murs also left it late before surging into the final.
In terms of John's vocal talents, he was good enough to win a MOBO award for Unsung Artist of the Year in 2003 when known as J'Nay.
He's also close friends with JLS, who are backing him for the title. Bandmember Oritse Williams told The Sun: "I am rooting for John. I know him from a while back. He taught me to sing actually."
JLS obviously have a huge fanbase as a result of their success on X Factor two years ago and their support for John via Twitter could well be a useful weapon in his favour.
Preview posted at 1650BST on 08/10/2010.
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Gamu is still as short as 5/1 and if she does end up back on the show then not only will she be one of the best singers with a huge support base but she'll also have a unique storyline compared to the other finalists.However, given the circumstances it seems that Treyc Cohen - also a much more polished performer than Katie and Cher at the last audition - is likely to get the nod for Cheryl's wildcard, she shouldn't be viewed a no hoper.
But the 26-year-old, rejected at Simon's LA mansion last year, won't make it into our staking plan purely because this whole situation remains a bit of a lottery. As far as all the potential wild cards are concerned, it's perhaps best to adopt the wait and see policy before staking any money on them.
Let's now look at each category in turn, focusing on those definitely in the line-up.
The Girls - Cheryl Cole - 6/4 general
Rebecca Ferguson (7/2)Cher Lloyd (7/1)Katie Waissel (28/1)
Cheryl, who has reportedly been forced to call in a security firm this week after being hounded by death threats, did at least make one superb choice at the luxury country house in Ascot when selecting Rebecca Ferguson.
We believe the Liverpudlian single mother of two comfortably has the best voice out of all 12 currently selected acts - and the potential wild cards for that matter - while she also has one of the most likeable personalities.
Rebecca rose to prominence with a quite brilliant performance at boot camp as she stunned Simon, Louis Walsh and stand-in judge Nicole Scherzinger with an emotional version of Corinne Bailey Rae's Like A Star.
Whether the 24-year-old becomes a star in her own right remains to be seen but it's no surprise to see her second-favourite with most bookies (7/2) to be X Factor champion.
She first got the chance to sing in front of Cheryl at the Ascot manor but despite coming across shy and timid, she managed to hold it together and showcase her soulful vocals throughout a rendition of Owl City's hit Fireflies.
Rebecca's lack of self confidence isn't necessarily a negative - in previous years viewers have tended to warm to the more vulnerable individual acts such as former winners Leon Jackson, Leona Lewis and Joe McElderry.
In fact you wouldn't say any previous winner - also including Steve Brookstein, Shayne Ward and Alexandra Burke - ever came across cocky or over the top throughout their respective series.
Yes, Sharon Osbourne did accuse Steve of being arrogant during the dramatic series one final but the viewers didn't agree and if anything probably felt a bit sorry for him.
The same can't be said about Cher and Katie at this moment in time, even though they both broke down and cried during the final audition.
Katie is perceived to be fame-obsessed and comments such as "I want to be a star in music, film, fashion, arts, medicine, everything" won't win her fans.
Auditioning elaborate fake eyelashes as well as holding a silly designer umbrella would have put most judges off and then her terrible attempt at the classic song Smile should have been the final nail in her coffin.
Yet somehow Cheryl was impressed and kept her in the competition.
The 24-year-old is running the risk of becoming the pantomime villain of this series - if she isn't already - and for that reason we staying well clear.
Moving onto Cher, we certainly can't say she doesn't have talent. But the way the fragile 17-year-old badly struggled to deal with the pressure at judges' houses has led to concerns that she isn't mentally ready for the live stages.
There were newspaper reports claiming Cher was on the brink of quitting but she hit back, declaring in the Sun: "There's no need to be worried about me. I'm tip top. My voice is back. I'm not a little girl anymore and I know what I'm doing."
Let's not forget how she became bookies' favourite in the first place, wowing judges with her version of Turn My Swag On and showing off a distinctive edge that really stands her out from the rest.
Her curious rap before launching into Coldplay's Vida la Vida at boot camp divided opinion somewhat but her quirky style will be a major talking point throughout the series and once the whole Gamu saga is forgotten, she has the potential to steal the show.
It's a shame the press have already shown intent to go after her with a string of unfavourable headlines although quotes such as "I want to be the female equivalent of Dappy in N-Dubz" (Star magazine) only strengthens the 'chav' tag.
That said the odds of 7/1 are really inflated in our opinion and although she doesn't fit into the mould of the traditional X Factor winner - like Rebecca does - maybe it's time the public go for someone different.
The Boys - Dannii Minogue - 2/1 general
Matt Cardle (7/2)Aidan Grimshaw (9/1)Nicolo Festa (28/1)
Considering Dannii was absent from all the initial auditions and also boot camp, she may consider herself rather lucky to be handed a traditionally strong category. There have been three 'boy' winners in the history of X Factor and she guided one of those - Leon Jackson - to glory back in 2007.
All the controversy surrounding the girls' category this week has deflected attention away from Dannii's bizarre selection of cocky Italian diva Nicolo Festa ahead of her other options including Marlon McKenzie and Paije Richardson, who we believe are both vocally superior and much more likeable.
In fact poor old Marlon, 27, suffered by the decision at boot camp to raise the 'overs' category to 28 from 25. If it had remained the same as every other series he surely would have made it to the live stages - although that's another issue entirely.
Nicolo will need to rely on his attitude and showmanship rather than his singing to attract enough fans to go far, but winning is surely several steps too far.
Aidan Grimshaw comes across as a more serious and intense version of Joe McElderry but despite having strong vocals, we doubt the nation will warm to him as much as they did the South Shields star.
When you look at the history of X Factor, no category has ever won two years in succession so you have to ask whether the public will want an alternative to yet another male solo artist in their late teens.
His acapella interpretation of Gold Digger in the first audition stages made the judges sit up and take notice and having maintained a high standard throughout the remainder of the selection process, it seemed a no brainer for Dannii to pick him in her final three.
The 18-year-old from Blackpool will no doubt be considered a dark horse but we reckon he'll find it hard to seize a lion's share of the vote.
Matt Cardle is currently the favourite with most firms - and a best of 7/2 - but at the same time has a kind of underdog air about him.
Matt is a regular, down-to-earth guy from Essex and with a voice like that you can understand why he got fed up with a succession of dead-end jobs and having 'no real direction'.
He might have been lazy and demotivated in the past but singing is clearly what he does best and this is the perfect opportunity to prove it.
We have no qualms about the short prices, but history suggests early favourites don't always have it their own way. Just look at Danyl Johnson last year for example.
Matt is already one of the most popular contestants on various fansites and polls across the internet but the X Factor is a musical marathon and we're yet to really cross the start line.
The Groups - Simon Cowell - 5/2
One Direction (7/2)Belle Amie (20/1)FYD (28/1)
The groups category is still searching for its first X Factor crown and there's a growing feeling that this could well be the year.
Simon Cowell will feel he's due a win having not tasted glory since Leona Lewis' triumph in 2006 and to give himself a better chance, he's put through the two acts purposefully manufactured at boot camp.
Some would argue One Direction and Belle Amie are merely made up of failed solo acts but this isn't strictly true.
For example, Liam Payne was easily in with a chance of reaching the final three in the boys category - let alone the judges house stage - so it's more than likely he was earmarked to spearhead a new group prior to his apparent rejection at boot camp.
They needed a talented frontman to make this plan, which has failed in previous years, more viable although it's fair to say Harry Styles, Niall Horan, Zain Malik and Louis Tomlinson weren't quite good enough to fly out to see Dannii.
Even so Simon will have big plans for this 'relevant' quintet and we'd expect them to go far.
Belle Amie are made up of Esther Campbell, Rebecca Creighton, Sophia Wardman and Geneva Lane and despite having little time to prepare ahead of the audition at Simon's villa in Marbella, they did gel together well enough to earn a spot in his final three.
Girl bands do have a terrible record in X Factor and there isn't much evidence so far to suggest Belle Amie won't struggle to make an early impact.
Finally we come to FYD, who looked the most slick and well-rehearsed group at the final audition.
It is always difficult for any act to get through the early weeks without the same kind of exposure and attention that the frontrunners enjoy but we believe this five-piece - made up of Ryan Lee Seager, Alex Murdoch, Jordan Gabriel, Matthew Newtion and Kalvin Lamey - can make enough of an impression to establish themselves in the competition.
While we're not expecting FYD to dramatically shoot to the top of the betting after the opening weekend, it could be worth taking a small each-way chance on them to emulate JLS' run to the final in 2008.
Although Simon is thought to favour his own creations, he spotted the group's promise in Spain during their performance of the Madcon hit Beggin' and later described them as the "dark horse in the contest."FYD also impressed with their creative harmonies and arrangement during versions of Plan B's She Said and Eliza Doolittle's Pack Up in the earlier audition rounds and even former winner Brookstein said he preferred them to One Direction.
However we must also add that Steve, writing in a blog on London24, thinks the "smart money" would be on the manufactured boyband - and he's even having a tenner on it himself!
We're opposing the series one champion's opinion though because FYD's odds are just too big to ignore at this stage. Especially when there's so little to choose between the groups in terms of talent.
The over-28s - Louis Walsh - 12/1
John Adeleye (20/1)Storm Lee (28/1)Mary Byrne (28/1)
It's easy to be dismissive of the oldies, especially after the judges house round at Adare Castle in Ireland was portrayed as a bit of a freak show.
Poor old Louis Walsh always seems to get lumbered with what's perceived to be the worst category each year, solely for comedy value, but he's now talked himself into being optimistic about his three acts.
Eccentric Scottish-American rocker Storm Lee, now sporting bright red hair, is essentially a Jon Bon Jovi/Bryan Adams wannabe and will polarise opinion similar to Jedward last year.
Cowell has never been a fan of the 37-year-old from the first audition so it was almost inevitable Louis would send him through to spark another rivalry.
Tesco have got a lot of free advertising from Mary Byrne although it's highly unlikely she'll go back to work on the checkouts again.
Nevertheless she had too good a voice to reject while Louis was also drawn to her friendly personality and gutsy determination. This doesn't make her a pop star though.
Finally we have John Adeleye, who has virtually drifted into the live stages without anyone really noticing him.
Although some may dismiss him as just the best of a bad bunch, John's performance of Billionaire was pretty cool and we're backing him to be a real surprise package.
Admittedly we are concerned that John's calm and composed nature means he's flying under the radar at the moment and an early exit would appear to be a genuine risk.
But if he hangs on in there, he can be one of those acts that bloom as the weeks go on.
Winning X Factor is all about momentum towards the end of the series and not necessarily about popularity built up over the auditions.
According to the official X Factor statistics, last year's winner Joe only started topping the vote on a regular basis from show seven while runner-up Olly Murs also left it late before surging into the final.
In terms of John's vocal talents, he was good enough to win a MOBO award for Unsung Artist of the Year in 2003 when known as J'Nay.
He's also close friends with JLS, who are backing him for the title. Bandmember Oritse Williams told The Sun: "I am rooting for John. I know him from a while back. He taught me to sing actually."
JLS obviously have a huge fanbase as a result of their success on X Factor two years ago and their support for John via Twitter could well be a useful weapon in his favour.
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